Let us be clear, I am old. I started as a consultant in 1980; I retired as a consultant five years ago. Most of what I write about consulting comes from those thirty-seven years. I look back over my career and try to extract lessons from my mistakes to pass on to newbies, yeomen, and old hands in the field to help them avoid my most boneheaded moves:
Newbies – understand the kinds of consulting, content, and process, and which you might be a better fit for, Oh and start planning for up or out on Day One.
Yeomen – learn to sell -it is the criterion for promotion and decide how you’ll bring in clients direct selling or thought leadership -yeah, I mean writing books that sell and doing speaking engagements and podcasts.
Old Hands – If you still want to “do the work” rather than just sell it, you’ll probably have to start a firm or “go independent.” Both are tough roads. And forget about fantasies like “bringing the clients to us” Conference centers are hotel and meeting space businesses; your brilliant content is irrelevant compared to sheets, water pressure, and cookies.
As interesting as I might think my acerbic self-care-analysis is, I concede it isn’t very forward-thinking. As one millennial reader of my upcoming book, Traveling the Consulting Road, said,
A lot has changed in the consulting world over the years and the way millennials make career decisions has changed too. They are much more aware/well-read/well-connected than folks their age 1-2 generations back. Some of Alan’s learnings are a given now and his advice is not key insights.
Ouch,
Also, I make no secret of the fact that I am a technology laggard. I use a computer and own a smartphone, but I definitely don’t have the latest apps or social media profiles. I still own a turntable and am encouraged that in some circles vinyl is coming back. (My thanks to Neil Young and Jack White.)
So it is fair to say that maybe I’m the last person who ought to be talking about the future of consulting. But some clients hire consultants for their “intelligence,” whether problem-solving ability, or specific knowledge of industry or competitive dynamics, or “emotional intelligence,’” unique insight into the mysteries of human behavior inside organizations. Now comes “Artificial Intelligence.” What does that mean for consultants?
Artificial Intelligence
I already established my complete lack of bona fides to talk about this subject. My mother was a computer programmer in 1956, but I have been dragged painfully slowly into the twentieth century and am still coming up to speed in this millennium.
But I read a book. (“Isn’t that just like a consultant? He read a book and now he wants to talk like an expert?”) The book is “The AI Dilemma: 7 Principles for Responsible Technology by Juliette Powers and Art Kleiner and I’d recommend it, but it isn’t really a technical book. It is more of an ethical or philosophical treatise on how to avoid the dangers of AI and use it for the benefit of human society. It did get me thinking in a more future-focused way than is my habitual wont.
In the book Powers and Kleiner focus on what they call Triple-A systems, algorithmic, autonomous, and automatic systems.
Algorithms
As I understand this, my online searches and transactions fit into a model (algorithm), which is a set of rules, if / then statements for example, that predicts what I might do in the future. Amazon sees that I bought a book on AI and offers me many other books on AI. This happened and might be a good model for books, interest in a topic begets more interest. It doesn’t work so well for eyeglass screwdrivers because how many do you really need? Tell that to Amazon which keeps offering me eyeglass screwdrivers because I bought one last year.
The algorithms update when they get more information and they have a search function to take in more data. This may be relevant to me on Amazon, but it is really relevant to all aggregated customers on Amazon or if we are talking about government or political campaign systems, it is very powerful and a little scary.
Autonomous and Automatic
After some initial programming, these systems operate on their own. They go looking for new data and build the model further, make decisions, and take prescribed actions. The problem is AI sometimes takes proscribed actions, actions that should be limited by law, common sense, or just plain good manners. AI just doesn’t know any better. This is why the news media currently has its “hair-on-fire” about AI technology. There are huge data ownership, privacy, and efficacy issues. There are stories of ChatGPT being used to write a legal brief and when ChatGPT didn’t find case law to match the brief, the software simply made it up. It doesn’t take much imagination to apply my Amazon eyeglass screwdriver anecdote to decision-making around nuclear weapons launch monitoring and response systems being run without human oversight and judgement. As I said, scary.
The book goes on to promote ways to design and use this new technology in responsible ways,
- Integrate four logics in design engineers – we can:
- Social justice – we should
- Government – protect and serve
- Corporate -serve stakeholders (make money)
- Abide by principles -Intentionality and open discussion in areas of risk, transparency, privacy, bias, accountability, etc.
AI and the Future of Consulting
This book got me thinking. Writers are worried that no one will hire them because they can just plug “give me a script for ‘Two and a Half Men’” into ChatGPT and zip-zipidee it’s done. Actors are worried that the ability to program facial and body movement recognition data will mean that their carefully produced image will show up on screen with no paycheck. These are perhaps valid concerns, but what about consultants?
Some companies have huge databases of customer and customer and competitive data; what will that mean for strategy consultants? Some social networks (LinkedIn) have databases of jobs and job seekers; might this inhibit headhunters and human resource consultants? Maybe.
When I was at Gemini Consulting there were repeated attempts to package various service offerings, “Process Improvement in a Box,” “Balanced Scorecard in a Box.” These offerings combined some written and some digital tools, packaged with some Gemini training in their use. These were attempts to “productize’ a service offering that was “commoditizing “ and being brought in-house by clients. McKinsey Solutions founded in 2013 seems a subscription model of the same concept and other consulting firms may have followed with their own offerings. Some worry this is “giving away the store.” Others say it is extending the firm’s reach to people who would be unlikely to be mainstream clients.
If we regard consulting as providing information and expertise only, then perhaps Algorithmic, Autonomous, and Automatic systems may change the way consultants do business. Generative AI, with natural language processors like ChatGPT, Amazon’s GPT3,5, Google’s BARD, and Microsoft’s Bing AI, might simplify proposal and report writing, but at this point will still require substantial human editing.
But if we define consulting as helping leaders change their companies, we probably have a long time before consultants will be replaced.
Business is about people. Whether you call them customers, suppliers, staff, competitors, shareholders, or community, they’re all people. People are messy, complex, and a bit unpredictable. So the interface with technology to make it do what works (vs multiple eyeglass screwdriver purchases), the creativity that sparks innovation, and the commitment that leads to change will require people-savvy consultants.
Will consultants need to understand how AI tools can save time? Yes. Will they need to be sensible about how these tools are used? Yes. Will AI replace consultants in helping companies change? I don’t think that will happen for a long time.
