The natural gas industry, together with the oil industry, together account for an estimated 24% of all anthropogenic methane emissions. According to for instance the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas is a fossil energy source consisting mainly of methane, which is a chemical compound with one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms. The chemical formula for methane is CH4.
The United States of America currently leads the production of natural gas hydrocarbons, followed by Russia, Iran, Qatar, Canada, China, The European Union, Norway, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan. In World Oil Outlook 2040, OPEC estimates that the largest upcoming energy demand will come from natural gas, with an average annual growth of 0.4 % from 2015 to 2040. (Global Methane Initiative 2018; Central Intelligence Agency 2017; U.S. Energy Information Administration 2017; OPEC 2017).
In OPEC ́s forecast for the world primary energy demand by fuel type from 2015 to 2040, the demand for gas will increase by a rate of 1.8% p.a., with the majority of the increase coming from non-OECD countries and the most rapid economic growth in the developing world. OPEC projects the global economy in 2040 being 226% in comparison to 2016, with 3/4 of growth coming from developing countries. China and India alone are projected to account for almost 40% of the global GDP in 2040. (OPEC 2017. World Oil Outlook 2040).
The OPEC acknowledges the relation between population growth and energy demand, however, considering a number of variables for instance in consumer trends. It also states how energy markets are affected by government policies and recognizes the need to monitor these on a regular basis, taking into consideration for instance the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals, with energy efficiency and clean energy now trending development. The OPEC is closely monitoring worldwide energy market and policy developments, mentioning the USA, the European Union, China, and India at the forefront.
Furthermore, OPEC estimates that total world primary energy demand by fuel type from 2015 to 2040 will see an increase of 3.6% for gas, 1,5% for nuclear energy, 0.3% for hydro energy, and 4% for other renewables, while the demand for oil would decrease by 4.2%, coal demand decreasing by 5.1%, and biomass demand decreasing by 0.1% during the time frame. The OPEC identifies energy efficiency as a critical uncertainty for the energy market with policies concentrating on reducing emissions through a number of measures related to financial and fiscal instruments. (OPEC 2017. World Oil Outlook 2040).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration presents natural gas as a proportionately clean burning fossil fuel, although exploration, drilling and production have direct impacts on the environment, in addition to the fact that natural gas consists mainly of methane which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Leaks from natural gas-related activities such as pipelines are causing toxic anthropogenic methane emissions. Despite the many environmental and health risks related to fossil fuels such as natural gas, the global energy market will continue to depend on these.
The OPEC projects that oil and gas combined will supply for more than 50% of global energy needs between 2015-2040. Gas alone is estimated to have a share of 29% in OECD, 20.8% in developing countries, and 45.4% in Eurasia in 2040. In China, gas is forecast to account for 10.6% of energy demand in 2040, while coal is expected to drop down to 48.6% from 64.3% in 2015.
The OPEC estimates that the highest growth in gas demand in the OECD region will be in OECD America, recognizing key influences related to the overall demand of natural gas and its dependency on multiple critical factors including gas supplies, competition, regulations, and pricing.
For instance in Finland, the national Energy Authority reports that “The Finnish natural gas market has been under sector-specific regulatory supervision since the assertion of the Natural Gas Market Act in August 2000”. The natural gas market in Finland has currently no competition, with 100% of the natural gas is being imported through one pipeline from Russia and traded on the Finnish market by one single company. In Finland, the demand for natural gas has been in decline for several reasons, with natural gas accounting for six (6%) of total generation fuel mix in 2018, with the baseline for energy demand being market-based.
In its World Gas Perspectives report (2017), the World Energy Council identifies four key findings concerning the development of the world gas market: 1) gas is expected to be the only source of fossil fuel with a growing share of the world energy market until 2050, although the long-term future for gas is insecure; 2) the global gas market will shift to Asia, with demand in Europe and North America stagnating or even decreasing; 3) by 2060, worldwide electricity demand will double, posing a possibility for the natural gas market to further grow, unless governments and regulators decide differently; 4) the natural gas sector must innovate and become a cleaner source of energy – policies and societal change will have an impact on the future of the worldwide gas market. Despite having lower emissions than both coal and oil, gas is a fossil fuel which emits greenhouse gases.
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Quite drastic figures, thank you for sharing Anne-Maria – escalated change has been called for – and for quite a while now. We’ll see how quick the world picks up. Usually, the right legislation is key in making changes permanent and fueling innovation. It has not been hurried…
Thank you for reading Maria. Yes, these are all projections of the OPEC (OPEC´s World Oil Outlook up to 2040). In terms of socioeconomic factors it is understandable that change takes place slowly but when it comes to the environment and its wellbeing (which affects the whole planet including its population) it is questionable what actually becomes more expensive in the long run? If we “save money and secure jobs in specific industries now” or take the risk of rapid changes for the sake of the environment? The fossil fuel sector also seems to be developing its practices towards increased sustainability. How this can work in reality is another question.
I am curious about that as well. Had the traditional industries actually allowed and given room and funding to a variety of energy resources we might be in a different place now. I would bet there are groups out there thinking they should have hopped on the innovation train a little sooner since there is always a counterbalance to deal with any new tech. Including the much promoted EVs, their recycling, maintenance etc. needs. Let alone questions of power outages etc. Innovation is necessary, and I agree, saving money now means it may require drastic measures to even keep stable. Natural disasters are not reading into the quarterly margin requirements.
Humans are, unfortunately, beings of habits. Any kind of change is uncomfortable, especially if and when it costs more (at least in the beginning stages), or if it generates less revenue. There is big money involved in the fossil fuel industry, so it is no wonder that countries with huge fossil fuel reserves want to capitalize on those resources. Then there are countries like Sweden, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Scotland, Germany, Uruguay, Denmark, China, Morocco, The USA and Kenya that invest heavily into renewables. Some of these countries already run almost entirely on renewable sources of energy: Costa Rica with 95% of electricity coming from hydropower, geothermal energy, solar and wind. Denmark runs with at least 43% on wind power already, which is a world record. Even China is committed to generating 35% of its electricity from renewables within the upcoming decade.
Indeed :). Costa Rica was a surprise to me – great examples. And so much more could be done with solar panels, for normal housing alone.
Yes indeed! In many countries, including Finland, it is possible to for instance rent solar panels instead of buying them. I have done so personally: I rented a solar panel at the rooftop of Helsinki Expo And Convention Center through HELEN. The power generation from the solar panel will be reduced from my electricity invoice. There are similar possibilities in different cities in Finland. You can rent one or more solar panels and become a supporter of solar energy production!
Super, thanks for the idea!
You are most welcome.