by Alan Campbell, Featured Contributor
I GUESS all of the pundits are out in droves predicting what 2014 will bring. Top CEO’s voicing their own perspective on the industry. They have given their interviews to the various trade journals and the rest is history.
All of these predictions are based on what the numbers tell them, it has been a decent year for the hotels, and the occupancy is up, the revenues are also up. So why not say that 2014 will be a very good year. I find it difficult to predict a banner year, not because the figures show that it might be, but because there are too many variables in the equation that can go wrong, and if it does the number mean nothing.
Stop to think of the political nature of the globe, the economic nature in some countries. Scotland would like to succeed from the UK, how will this impact the numbers? Spain is faced with a similar situation, these issues impact the economy.
The economy is not where it should be, and yet some of the companies are proceeding like it was 2006. Any political or economic disaster will upset the best laid plans. Are we immune to another terrorist attack, maybe, maybe not? It could happen. Government interference is always a threat, as we have seen with the Affordable Care Act. That has been a disaster since day one. Did the government not shut down? How much did that cost the hotel Industry? Was that figure in anyone’s predictions?
Immigration reform is at the top of the pile, and even though people entering our country should do so legally, there is the problem of a pool of workforce. Where will it come from if the reform thins out the pool? Tax reform could occur and that could threaten hotel expansion, and job growth.
Monetary tightening could occur, stocks could drop, another bank scandal? There are a dozen items that could rock our industry, so to say that one is able to predict the next three years, or one year is a crap shoot. Well enough said you get the picture, go ahead make your predictions and if they don’t pan out maybe the government will bail the industry out.