My father has long been fond of the old expression “Better lucky than smart.” He spent years in the drilling and blasting business, an industry fraught with uncontrollable variables and unintended consequences despite rigorous calculations. More recently, I have come to see this adage as a simple tool for improving decision analysis and overcoming outcome bias — particularly among those not formally trained in decision science.
Also known as the “outcome effect,” outcome bias is a cognitive process that causes individuals to evaluate a decision based on the final result, whether that outcome was achieved by chance or through a sound process. When a good outcome results, the entire effort is judged positively. Conversely, a sound decision process may be condemned if the end product is negative for reasons unrelated to the process. Ideally, process and outcome would be evaluated separately, but this is rarely the case.
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